Israel Matzav: What Egypt means by ‘renegotiating’ Camp David

Map of the Sinai Peninsula with country border...
Sinai Penninsula

So the news is coming out that Egypt now wants to “renegotiate” its peace treaty with Israel.  That sounds nice, doesn’t it?  Reasonable men, gathered around the table, making a few minor changes to a treaty.  Well, unfortunately not, as Israel Matzav reports:

For the two items most Egyptians want to renegotiate are precisely those that made the treaty viable for Israel: one essential to its economic security, and one to its physical security.

Let’s start with the less important one: Egypt supplies almost all of Israel’s oil and natural gas, and this is highly unpopular. Israel’s own recently discovered reserves can eventually replace Egyptian natural gas. But for oil, Israel has no obvious alternative supplier: No other regional producer will sell to it, while buying through middlemen or distant suppliers like Russia is both more expensive and less reliable, with potentially severe economic consequences. Hence Israel never would have ceded Sinai’s oilfields without promise of a steady Egyptian supply.

But energy is minor compared to Egyptians’ other gripe with the treaty: the demilitarization of Sinai, on which Israel’s defense depends. From northern Sinai, Egyptian tanks could reach Tel Aviv or Jerusalem in a few hours — not nearly enough time for Israel to mobilize its reserves. And since Israel’s standing army is minuscule compared with Egypt’s, its entire defense strategy depends on mobilizing the reserves.

via Israel Matzav: What Egypt means by ‘renegotiating’ Camp David.

If Egypt were to cut off Israel’s oil and arm the Sinai, it would be an act of war every bit as much as the unprovoked attack in the Yom Kippur war of 1973.  Israel would have no choice but to aggresively seize the Sinai just to survive.

Of course, the world, as always, would condemn Israel.

One of the current discussions going on in the prophecy buff corner of the interwebs is on whether Psalm 83 describes a single, massive war in which all of Israel’s neighbors will attack her at once (much like in 1948) and how soon that war will happen.  If it is speaking of a particular war rather than the series of wars Israel has been forced into since her rebirth, then I think we may be seeing some of the opening shots now.

If that’s the case,

13 Make them like tumbleweed, my God,
like chaff before the wind.
14 As fire consumes the forest
or a flame sets the mountains ablaze,
15 so pursue them with your tempest
and terrify them with your storm.
16 Cover their faces with shame, LORD,
so that they will seek your name.

17 May they ever be ashamed and dismayed;
may they perish in disgrace.
18 Let them know that you, whose name is the LORD—
that you alone are the Most High over all the earth.

Shalom

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